What an influx of American tourists could mean for Cuba

When JetBlue Flight 387 touched tarmac Wednesday, it marked a historic moment for the U.S. and Cuba.

The plane from Ft. Lauderdale, Florida, to Santa Clara was the first commercial flight between the two countries in more than half a century, and it heralded a new era of American tourism in the Caribbean nation.

SEE ALSO: First commercial flight from U.S. to Cuba in 50 years takes off

Visitors from the U.S. have 12 ways to justify a trip to the country (including visiting relatives, taking part in academic programs or participating in journalistic or religious activities) and soon there will be six carriers offering 110 flights dailyto nine Cuban cities.

After years of Canadians and Europeans enjoying the delights of Cuba, Americans will gradually get to visit en masse too. 91,000 people from the U.S.traveled to Cuba in 2014. By 2015 that figure was 150,000 and it's projected to grow to 1.5 million annually.

The potential influx of U.S. visitors poses several questions though.

Firstly, is Cuba ready? Travel expert Peter Greenberg thinks not. He pointed outon CBS Wednesday that the country only has 60,000 hotel rooms and they're full of visitors from other countries. That woeful figure is emblematic of an unprepared tourism infrastructure, he added, with Wi-Fi, bathrooms, transportation and computer terminals for credit card payments among the aspects that will need to upgrade fast.

The fact that the first flight was to Santa Clara and not Havana was telling too, he said, adding that the Cuban government is splitting the new flights between nine airports as there isn't one hub that can take the increased air traffic.

While cruise ships have been docking in Cuba's ports in increased numbers since Obama restored diplomatic relations in 2014 and travel restrictions have eased, those boats offer beds and meals to their guests. Tourists coming off planes will be on their own.

The finite number of hotel rooms and limited tourist services will mean demand may soon exceed supply and you don't need an economics degree to work out what that will mean for your holiday money.

Airbnb is offering some respite. The company launched in Cuba in April 2015 with 1,000 listings, building on an existing slice of capitalism in the country that saw residents offering home stays or casas particulares to travelers.

Secondly, though, and perhaps more importantly: What will the growing numberof U.S. tourists in Cuba mean for the country itself?

Will an influx in visitors from the north herald an era of Americanization in which cheap chicken shops chase away the arroz con pollo joints and the ghost of Hemingway disappears in a steam of skinny lattes?

Hugh Riley, secretary general and CEO of the Caribbean Tourist Organization voiced similar concerns. "When visitors arrive and they stay and they invest and buy property, they bring with them elements of their own culture," he said. "Is a culture ever impervious to influences from external sources? The answer is an unequivocal no."

Of course, many of those curious first travelers keen for a more authentic experience will inadvertently precipitate in the problem. And while the tourist floodgates are slowly creaking open, U.S. businesses are certainly surveying the untapped market with glee.

Starwood Hotels & Resorts, the massive multinational with 1,300 properties in some 100 countries, signed three hotel deals in March. The agreement means several state-run hotels will become Starwood stays; in Havana the Hotel Inglaterra will be part of Starwood's Luxury Collection Brand while the Hotel Quinta Avenida will become a Four Points by Sheraton. Marriott's CEO accompanied Obama on his spring trip too. 

Many corporate eyes are watching the island; a U.S. plastics delegation, for example, explored options in April. Economist Bill Wood told an industry website: “Having to serve tourists is going to be a great thing. Any time there’s commerce, we know that plastics can’t be far behind.”

Jaime Suchlicki, director of the Institute of Cuban and Cuban American Studies at the University of Miami, told Mashable he thinks the threat from more tourism is overblown. "For the past decade, several million tourists from Latin America, Canada and Spain have visited Cuba, many that speak Spanish. Very little impact," he said.

"Tourists do not change a society.  Communism collapsed in Eastern Europe 10 years after tourism stopped. If we believe that tourism can change totalitarian societies, we should send tourists to North Korea and Iran."

A more pressing concern, Suchlicki believes, is the fact that tourists' money ends up in the pocket of the military via government-run hotels and restaurants.

"A portion of the tourists' expenditure in Cuba supports the regime and in particular the Cuban military," he said. “Visitors should hope to influence Cuban society politically and culturally and so on. Visits as tourists alone should be avoided.”

Luke Waterson, a freelance travel writer who specializes in the Caribbean, toldMashable that American tourism and investment was vital for the country.

"Anything which improves Cuban quality of life towards the standards many of us take for granted is an immensely positive progression," he said. "Cuba's culture is massively complex: There is an already entrenched American influence, but also an African, a Spanish, a Caribbean."

"Cuba's economic outlook, without overseas trade or investment, or without foreign tourism, would be very, very bleak. It is hard to see how such a strong, rich culture could be overly damaged by an influx of North American tourists and it is hard to see how the economy could be anything other than boosted. Of course, it remains to be seen how long it will take for Cubans in the remoter, less-touristy parts of the country to see the resultant benefits, but I believe these will come in time." 

Greenberg suggests Americans interested in Cuba wait 18 months to give the nation time to prepare for the influx of visitors and visit some of the other Caribbean islands in the meantime. They'll be suffering from a lack of business and operators will be cutting prices. Islands in the Caribbean see some 70% of their tourism come from the U.S. and places like the Bahamas and Jamaica could be hard hit by the increased interest in Cuba.

Whether anyone will be able to resist the charms of the island for that long, however, remains to be seen.